A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
